PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU - Leibowitz, Martin L.
AU - Kogelman, Stanley
TI - Fund Success and Assurance Frontiers
AID - 10.3905/jpm.2021.1.294
DP - 2021 Oct 02
TA - The Journal of Portfolio Management
PG - jpm.2021.1.294
4099 - http://jpm.pm-research.com/content/early/2021/10/02/jpm.2021.1.294.short
4100 - http://jpm.pm-research.com/content/early/2021/10/02/jpm.2021.1.294.full
AB - Investment fund investment strategies and asset allocations typically are based on a multiplicity of complex (possibly competing) goals that often are incorporated in a simple return target. The challenge is to develop a portfolio whose expected return at least equals the target but has a volatility less than a disaster-avoidance risk limit. However, such a goal-matching return only provides a 50/50 chance of success. Truly important goals may require a higher probability of success, such as 60%. This article focuses on efficient portfolios and the return they can provide with a specified probability of assurance. The key step is to map the efficient frontier into an assurance frontier that plots risk-adjusted returns with a 60% success probability. This frontier typically has a peak return that is the highest available risk-adjusted return. In some cases, this peak portfolio is at the risk limit. In other cases, even with a monotonically rising efficient frontier, the peak may fall well below the maximum volatility limit.Key Findings▪ Portfolios with expected returns that just match a goal-based target may have only a 50/50 assurance of success (even after those targets have been properly revised to account for, e.g., inflation, fund expenses, and geometric effects).▪ Portfolios that have the best risk-adjusted return can sometimes be found at a volatility that is well short of a fund’s maximum risk limit.▪ Longer horizons generally lead to higher peak returns that can enhance prospects of success.